While yesterday's post looked at where the jobs are anticipated to be in the coming decade, it is also helpful to see what happened over the past 10 years in terms of employment. Overall, the picture was not rosy. Indeed, the past decade saw no net job creation. In a similar vein, many households are making less money now (when adjusted for inflation) than they were 10 years ago. While the pain this has created is real, it also should be noted that some of this is due to measurement issues as the late 1990s were times marked by economic growth largely fueled by an investment bubble that subsequently burst while we are currently working through some economic issues that haven’t been seen since prior to the Second World War. As a result, the past decade is bracketed between a high point and what is an historic low.

All that being said, one can only hope that the early signs of improvement in the job picture continue to emerge. Additionally, the trend toward workers returning to school for additional training as well as the emergence of specialized training programs can only lead toward increasing the overall value of the pool of human capital that is available.

Reid Klion

Best wishes for 2010! The past several days have been an opportunity for many to take some time from work and enjoy family and friends. The end of the year (and, in this case, what is arguably the end of a decade), is also a time for reflection and anticipation.

In turning attention to human capital and workforce development, one topic to consider is where job growth will be in the coming decade. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the high growth positions will be in professional/business services, health care, and service industries while manufacturing will continue to dwindle. The positions with the highest growth potential are seen to be in the management, scientific, and technical consulting services while the greatest anticipated losses are expected to be in textile and apparel manufacturing. Here is a nice graphic representing the BLS data.

While unemployment still hovers around 10%, there are some recent signs of improvement. However, there are concerns that much of the job growth is in lower skilled positions, especially in home health care, customer service, and food preparation as well as the realization that the days of well-paid factory work largely may be a thing of the past. Interestingly, the best-paying positions in which there is substantial growth but require limited training is long-haul truck driving.

Reid Klion

There is an old saying that an economic downturn turns into a depression as soon as you lose your job. With the current unemployment rate now at 10% (and down a bit from October’s high of 10.2%), there are substantial numbers of people who are  unable to find work. A recent New York Times/CBS News poll documents some of the common issues faced by the unemployed ranging from the obvious financial hardships to mental health issues and family conflict. Consistent with other reports, a healthy number are considering job re-training or a return to school.

In terms of the future, Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winner for economics, is concerned that job creation efforts have not gone far enough.  (He also makes tthe interesting point out that the economy needs to add over 100,000 jobs a month simply to keep up with population growth.) While he believes that the government did the right thing in stabilizing the banks last year, efforts have not been sufficient on the job front. However, rather than viewing the cup as half-empty, others see some positive news on the horizon. For example, unemployment claims are edging downward, there are increases in productivity, and seasonal hiring is at its highest level since 2004. Regardless, it is clear that the current economic situation has created substantial difficulty for millions (as well as for the business who want to thrive). We can only hope that these early signs of improvement are a signal of things to come.

Reid Klion

I read an interesting article the other day on the psychological challenges faced by financial professionals in light of the investment market plummet of the past year. Written by a gentleman originally trained as a clinical psychologist who has spent the past 25 years as an investment advisor, he outlines a number of stressors and dynamics facing this group of professionals.

• Loss of faith in the fundamental investment  theories that underlie the models followed by investment professionals which completely failed to predict potential losses of this speed and magnitude.
• Subsequent revelations about the investment industry have also proven unsettling, leaving professionals to doubt the credibility of their own organization.
• Guilt and helplessness about the losses faced by clients
•  Personal losses in investments and retirement plans (with the latter often being in parent company stock).
• Concerns about the future in a profession and industry that suddenly became wholly unpredictable.

Given it is written for an audience of clinical psychologists, the article becomes a bit technical in spots. However, it provides a rather unique perspective on some issues that I honestly had not given much thought and is worth a look if it captures your interest.

Reid Klion

Since the economic crisis emerged over a year ago, there has been a rash of reports on the influx of students into post-secondary institutions, especially community and technical colleges. Here is the most recent from the Economist. In addition to citing economic factors, the article also points to a number of other dynamics that contribute to this trend. First, post-secondary enrollment rates have been going up for several years. Increasing the pool of potential students, the percentage of young people who fail to complete high school has shrunk from nearly 16% to less than 10% over the past 30 years. Additionally, the current economic woes have driven home the point that the availability of well-paying unskilled labor jobs has dropped precipitously over the past two decades marked by cataclysmic changes in the U.S. automotive industry as well as the trend toward the outsourcing of manufacturing

It is clear that the current upsurge of interest in training is in part influenced by the perception by many that they have no other viable options. However, it is hard to think there are not some silver linings in the grey clouds. First, while there are no guarantees that additional training will definitely lead to a job offer at the end of the line, it is hard to think that a broadened skill set will decrease an individual’s employability, especially if schooling is in a skill with high demand. From a broader societal perspective, there also seem to be few negatives in increasing the value of the nation’s human capital which will benefit us all in the long run.

Reid Klion

Awareness and prevention of sexual harassment in the workplace has been a major concern for the past several years. In 2008, the EEOC received almost 15,000 complaints of sexual harassment with employers having to pay nearly $50 million in resultant benefits.

There have been growing concerns about the role of e-mail and text messaging in this, and a recent SHRM article outlines some of these issues. The piece makes a couple of excellent points about how social networking sites can lead to a blurring of the line between the social and work domains (where behavior acceptable in one’s personal life may not be appropriate for the workplace) and how the informal and spontaneous nature of texting may lead to types of communication that might not take place if a different medium were used.

The challenge for HR professionals lies in providing appropriate workplace training to educate employees about the potential negative implications of their behavior as well as of the appropriate use of company resources.  Employees should also likely be reminded that their workplace electronic communications typically can be accessed in the case of a complaint. For example, records of inappropriate text messages between the ex-mayor of Detroit and his chief of staff were one set of factors that lead to his eventual resignation. The bottom line is that employees need to be aware of policies regarding sexual harassment and that they still pertain whether an interaction is electronic or in person.

Reid Klion

While it appears that the rate of job loss has slowed in the US, it still managed to creep up to 9.7% in August. However, others argue that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 17% when one takes into account people who have been reduced to part-time hours, stopped looking for work, and the like.  

As might be expected, unemployment also takes an emotional toll. According to research carried out at Rutgers University, over half the people currently looking for work are jobless for the first time in over 5 years. Not surprisingly, many of the unemployed describe stress, sadness, and strains in family relationships.

Another trend related to the economic slowdown is that older workers are understandably less inclined to retire due to losses in their retirement accounts. Economists point out that this has a de-stabilizing effect on the economy in that in good times, people are much more inclined to take an early retirement (when there is the need for additional workers) but more likely to hold onto their jobs when times are tough (like now when there are more than enough workers available).

On the other hand, there is a fairly broad consensus that unemployment is starting to bottom out. While there are somewhat different economic factors in play, Canada actually added jobs to its economy in August. Additionally, it appears the US federal government still needs to hire more than 270,000 workers over the next few years in “mission critical” posts in health care, homeland security, and law enforcement, according to the Partnership for Public Service.

Reid Klion

It seems that the media has had a lot to say recently about going “green.”  Undoubtedly, the current administration appears dedicated to improving the current legal standards governing environmental safety.  Many scientists also argue that we must take action now in order to avoid the nasty consequences of global climate change.

A recent article in the New York Times focuses on a potentially positive effect of our nation’s increasing “greenness” – the creation of new industries and jobs. It’s true that “green” jobs are likely to increase as we seek to lower emissions, gain energy independence, and clean up our water, earth, and air. However, some experts say it is unlikely that these jobs will be enough to replace those that we will lose from more traditional industries. For instance, if we enact carbon and energy restrictions, we risk losing jobs in the coal and oil industries as well as in manufacturing. In addition, “green” industries may well face the same foreign competition for jobs and other challenges as their predecessors.

Despite the new economic and industrial waters we are charting, our challenges remain the same. We must create jobs that benefit the individual – our economy, our culture – as well as the whole – the global economy, the environment, and the well-being of all people inside and outside our borders. Although it is interesting to consider how industries and jobs will change in relation to the threat of global warming, it is more important to keep our eyes on the prize of stabilizing the U.S. economy, creating jobs to lower unemployment, and pulling out of the current recession.

Jocelyn Courtney-Hays

I recently came across an article in which an HR director was lamenting the suitability of a rather large candidate pool for a single casino maintenance position.  While numerous applicants appeared well-qualified on paper, in-person or phone interviews revealed that many of these folks were just not willing to play by the hiring organization’s rules. They wanted things like smoke breaks, medical benefits, and vacation time--all on their terms.  If the organization could not provide these things exactly as they wanted, then they were no longer interested in the position.  

Needless to say, the HR director was dumbstruck by this brazen, egocentric, “it’s all about me” attitude, especially in light of current economic conditions.  In the end, though, human nature is still human nature.  Economic crisis or not, personalities do not suddenly change overnight.  An individual who lacked drive, initiative, and motivation at this time last year, is unlikely to have transformed him or herself into a highly motivated, reach for the stars kind of team player simply because the security of the financial system came crashing down.  The fact remains that most people continue to manifest the same personal competencies (or lack thereof) this year that they always have. As a result, HR directors are finding themselves faced with having many more candidates, but not necessarily more talent.

One of the implications is that behavioral assessments may be even more viable than ever as HR tools to be used in weeding out those individuals who possess the required skill-set on paper but lack the “will do” attitude. While it has always been critical for organizations to select candidates who have the required competencies, it has been decades since organizations have found themselves faced with such large candidate pools for so few positions.  Even the largest of organizations simply do not have the resources required to screen each and every candidate with in-person or telephone interview.  Online behavioral assessments offer a potential solution to this employment paradox.  With the capability to administer hundreds of online assessments (in the same amount of time required to administer a single interview), HR directors can accommodate larger candidate pools in an efficient manner to find what may be a needle in the haystack in terms of exceptional talent.  

Lori Ferzandi

Given one of the things we do here at pan is to help employers to select and develop  people, I pay some attention to the larger labor market. As we all know, hiring is down and unemployment is now around 9% according to May 2009 reports from the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result, one of the things that I find interesting are reports of industries or occupations that continue to do well despite the overall economic situation. For example, there is still a strong demand for positions such as critical care nursing, electrical linemen, and welders. A couple of commonalities among these positions is that they require significant technical skill and require work that is physically demanding. (If you don’t think bedside nursing is physically challenging, just ask a nurse!)

A somewhat similar story can be found internationally. According the Manpower’s recently released Talent Shortage Survey, the most difficult positions to fill globally are skilled manual trades, sales representatives, and technicians who work in the areas of production, operations, engineering and maintenance. The Manpower report goes on to indicate that in down economic times, employers need to do more with less and that workforce planning and selection are even more critical because every employee needs to make a difference.

Reid Klion

This article makes some interesting points:

• While unemployment is now at a 25 year high of 8.5%, it doesn’t mean that hiring has ceased. (This is also what we see from our clients.)
• 4.8 million workers were either laid off or lost their jobs last month, but 4.3 million new workers were hired.
• Sectors such as health care, customer service, and public works are hiring.
• Following the principle of supply and demand, the quality of available applicants has improved.
• Difficulties in selling homes can limit job mobility.

I think that the takeaway point is that despite the economic climate, some organizations continue to hire. And those that do hire can benefit from a buyer’s market and the quality of available candidates.

Reid Klion